Blame Downtown Fresno contraction on the Manchester Mall

I listened to several good discussions on the fate of Downtown Fresno last week on KMJ. Every local on-air personality covered it. Appleton spoke of getting medical interests Downtown to revitalize and the recent plan for 80 new residences. Parking and grocery stores were a topic on John and Jen. Chris Daniel has covered the topic numerous times.

Naturally, The Cured Ham has his take on Downtown, with the focus on food and the economics therein.

When a franchisee comes to a city to prospect potential locations to build or lease, they often look on a map at the number of homes, income levels and businesses in a 360 degree radius from the proposed property location. That 360 degree view is then broken down by ever expanding quarter mile circles and traffic patterns to measure everything from daily commutes to income levels within the ever expanding 360 circle. In Fresno, the expanding demographics analysis radius is very predictable, it’s 3 miles.

This 3 mile / 360 degree concept is analytical, yet obvious. Why does Fashion Fair have a Fleming’s, Cheesecake Factory, and BJ’s Brewery? Why does Riverpark have such a high concentration of franchisees? Why did TGI Friday’s pick that location on Herndon and First over 20 years ago? And why doesn’t Manchester Mall have any high-end restaurants?

Answers? Favorable density, traffic patterns, income levels, and other demographic patterns that increase the probabilities of success for the franchise. It comes down to analytics on demographics and the patterns of those demographics within 3 miles of where a franchise or large mall is being proposed.

Now, look at two other North Fresno strip malls/centers that have had less than favorable outcomes, Palm and Nees and Fort Washington and Friant. Neither center has 360 degrees of coverage with regards to population, cross-streets or traffic flow. Nearly a third of their surrounding real estate is open space or bluff space, not helpful to retailers. While income levels are generally high in both areas, these income levels can’t make up for giving away one-third of the real estate to useless dirt. Now, combine giving up 1/3 of the market to open space and dirt with high lease terms in both locations and you may begin to factor why the restaurant successes in both locations have been spotty at best.

After this critical and factual evaluation of North Fresno, it stands to reason that a more critical look at Downtown is in order. Traffic patterns alone would suggest to a mid to high level restaurant franchisee that a dinner crowd is limited at best. Secondly, income levels of residents are generally lower when compared to the area around Fashion Fair or River Park. Thirdly, within the 3 miles and 360 degrees of coverage, we examine each larger circle to the south and west are not favorable conditions, peppered with industrial complexes and low population density.

Now ask yourself a simple question, outside of a Subway or other fast food chain that tends to favor lunch crowds and lower incomes, have there been any other franchisees that located themselves in Downtown Fresno? The obvious answer is no. The franchisees understand that a high proportion of Downtown’s daytime population is municipal, hospital, and utility employees. Each of those particular professions has a demographic attached to them with regard to income and time allotted for lunch. It’s also highly likely that a high proportion of those Downtown employees just described live north of Downtown at least 3 miles away, which, quite predictably, puts them at around Manchester Mall and an entirely new 360 degree / 3-mile radial. Guess what other malls are exactly 3 miles away, Fashion Fair and Fig Garden Village. Coincidence? I think not.

Wait for it…

Can you guess what shopping center is 3 miles away from Fig Garden Village and Fashion Fair? River Park! Ask yourself the next obvious question? Where do you think the next big mall is going to go? While it may not be as perfect as before, the 3 mile pattern, it’s close. I would place bets near Valley Children’s Hospital and the push towards Millerton. Not next year, but soon. Rome wasn’t built in a day either.

Campus Point will be an interesting development to watch over the next 5 years as the campus itself is its own 3-mile circle, lots of farm land, a low on-campus student population with only a couple national franchisees, Buffalo Wild Wings, Marie Calendar’s, and Chipotle next to or on campus. Additional, Campus Point breaks the 3-mile rule. It’s only 2 miles away from Sierra Vista Mall and Fashion Fair, which means overlap. Stay tuned for how the new development works out and who is attracted to set up restaurants.

So go back to Downtown Fresno and ask yourself, who lives, commutes, sends their kids to school, the ages and incomes of people living within a 3 mile radius of Downtown and you have your answer for why franchisees don’t establish within the Downtown 360, 3 mile radius. It doesn’t pay for them to do so. 80 new lofts in Downtown won't change that and neither will 80 more lofts in another year. People come to Fresno and stay in Fresno for a house with a backyard, free parking, a large garage, Save Mart, Wal-Mart, Costco, Target, Home Depot, and lots of large restaurant franchises within 3 miles of their home.

If Fresnans wanted to pay $3 a square foot to live in a loft Downtown, they probably don't have kids, pets, gardens, or a BBQ. They work a lot because they have to pay $3/square foot to live in a cool loft Downtown! I should know, I lived in a loft in Sonoma County, a flat in SF, a townhome in Old Town Pasadena, and an apartment in Rockridge. Except I walked to the grocery store, laundry, gym, restaurants, clubs, and movie theatre. Things that aren't going to happen anytime soon in Downtown Fresno.

Why? Fresnans have been well trained to drive their cars for convenience. I wouldn't drive to Walnut Creek from Oakland to go to Target. All a Fresnan has to do is drive down the block for their slice of convenience. A Bay Area resident has to move to another town for Target or Wal-Mart.

My analysis is not biased, it’s a simple analysis of trend and basic historical analytics that should be obvious. The same reasons hold true in my analysis of Downtown for the two centers in the north, Palm/Nees and Ft. Washington/Friant; neither is at full capacity or fully utilized as completely efficient stores, fully one-third of their market is grassland and dirt, completely unproductive to a restaurant.

So the next time you’re having a discussion about Downtown revitalization, River Park isn’t your enemy Downtown Advocates. Blame it all on the Manchester Mall…they started the move north over 50 years ago. River Park is simply the natural outcome of an expanding city. Beachheads have already been established at Children’s Hospital north on 41, Brighton Crest towards Millerton, and east on Highway 180 toward Sanger; look to the conversation about expansion move in those directions, all moving away from Downtown…not towards it.

Obituary: Fresno Restaurants. Really?

I take issue with a recent front page headline feature in The Fresno Bee written by Bethany Clough

“Closed: Economy takes toll on Fresno restaurant scene”

Bethany’s headline paints a grim picture about Fresno’s restaurant scene and economy. The economy in 2012 didn’t force restaurants to close. Poorly run, ill-conceived, unwisely located, undercapitalized restaurants failed in 2012 just like the do every year in Fresno and all across the county. 2012 wasn’t special and neither will 2013.

Other viewpoints from various interviews in the article regarding the "bloodbath" of closures in Fresno were: 

• Expensive lease terms
• Restaurant perceptions of public not rooted in reality
• Expensive menu items are not what Fresnans want
• Police action at restaurant results in less customers

As a counterpoint to the headline of closures, Dusty Buns and Lucy's Lair are examples of "the flip side" implying success? Really? Lucy's Lair, a success? Really? 

Expensive menu items are not what Fresnans want? Not true.

Bethany, have you been to Fleming’s and Ruth’s on a regular night watching $40 dollar steaks, a la carte sides, and $100 wine being ordered? But not everything at Ruth’s or Fleming’s is expensive; how about Fleming’s and Ruth’s $6 dollar happy hour burger? Dusty Buns charges more for one of their sandwiches for heaven’s sake and you have to order fries! Have you been in for Ruth’s happy hour? Message me sometime, I’ll take you there and I’ll buy. Two of the most expensive restaurants in town are quite busy with value priced meals at the bar for happy hour.

I can’t speak to restaurants like Cheesecake Factory, BJ’s, Texas RoadHouse because I don’t eat at those places. Cheesecake Factory is NOT cheap by any stretch and has more expensive menu items than most local restaurants. 

I know, I know, you only eat local right?

Well, sticking with the expensive theme, there are several well-run, long-lived local restaurants that NEVER will have a happy hour, such as Parma, Trelio, and Cracked Pepper. All of these restaurants have been operating through the 2007/08 financial crisis and survived.

Fresnans have an appetite for expensive food and wine. Don’t let anyone fool you into believing otherwise.

Local but with a more value oriented menu and full bar service? Maybe the bar at Yosemite Ranch on a Thursday night is more your speed for the $4 $5 $6 $7 menu and some music at 9pm? I’d get the prime steak at Yo Ranch personally. Seems as though Pismo’s, Elbow Room, Cosmos (stop the press, I mentioned a Downtown restaurant I like), Wassabi #1 and #2, Guiseppe Gallo’s, Campagnia, Five, The Vineyard in Madera,  and Vintage Press’ associated restaurants in Visalia all have their higher priced menus, bars and happy hour pricing and seem to be thriving in this economy. The economy isn’t to blame.

Another hypothesis is, violence and a suspended liquor license were "issues" that Roe experienced is another reason for failure. "Issues" is akin to me saying something is "interesting" without being specific. I outlined Roe's "issues" in my blog last week.

Not to pick on The Bow (because The Elbow Room is the leader of the pack for restaurant success in Fresno) but their history of "issues" is somewhat blemished. How many fights, drunks, jacked cars, unwanted pick-up lines, smoke, broken toilets, vomit ridden floors, DUI, alleged prostitution, drugs, gambling and Fresno PD who just “hang out” in the parking have been reported over the years? The Elbow Room is a Fresno institution and last I checked, they’re busy. Why? Management knows how to deal with internal "issues" effectively. How many recessions has The Elbow Room been through?

And to add to it, The Bow leases a space in Fig Garden Village, hardly cheap lease terms. Speaking of lease terms…Parma, not cheap. Five, not cheap. Campagnia, not cheap. Wassabi, not cheap. Again, lease terms are negotiated, not often dictated. If the restaurant owner doesn’t like the least terms, they can move, close down, or wait to open in a different location. Lease terms are another excuse for failure.

“On the flip side”

Restaurant successes in Fresno are implicitly listed in your article as well. And quite predictably, Dusty Buns Bistro is named (implicitly) as a Fresno success. Shocker! I just discussed this in my 2012 year in review, if you’re a food blogger in town, you’re under contract to name Dusty Buns as a success. Dusty Buns economic impact to the City of Fresno is a fraction of what any of the other LOCAL restaurants I named above are. Yosemite Ranch and Pismo’s take in far more revenue, employ far more people, and are open more days per year than Dusty Buns. Which basically means that the longer Pismo’s stays in the business, the more important it is to Fresno’s economy and more important economically than Dusty Buns. Period. And Pismo’s opened in the height of the recession!

Bethany, write about Pismo’s 50,000 covers this year versus Dusty Buns 5,000 covers. If Dusty Buns closes its doors, it affects maybe 10 direct employees. If Pismo’s goes out of business it affects over 100 employees. The closure of Dusty Buns would be a Kleenex jerker of a story for the Bunists and The Beehive, but not much of an impact economically to Fresno. And for the record, I'm pleased at Dusty Buns success and have said as much many times, even if I say it sarcastically. I wish them continued success and great fortune, but I don't over-estimate their financial impact to the City.

Lucy’s Lair is also mentioned and implied as a success. Really? They moved from a horrible location (because there wasn’t any business out there for Ethiopian food and they knew it) to another location that isn’t much better. In fact, Bethany, you referred to Lucy’s Lair moving closer to “civilization”. WOW! Last I checked, civilization included a Me N’Ed’s in the same strip mall Lucy’s was located in that’s quite busy.

Is there a Me N’Ed’s Downtown? No and there’s a reason for that to. Makes me wonder about where the center of "civilization" in Fresno is if someone is suggesting moving "closer" toward it. Close implies a center and the center of Fresno isn't Downtown and it isn't Maple and Behymer. So it must be Shaw and Fresno Street, right?

I’d place my bets on five more Robertito’s than the success of Lucy’s Lair in the long term. An Arsenio’s just opened up at the West and Herndon 76 gas station; I’ll put my money on Arsenio’s. Look at population demographics; are more people going out for Mexican food or Ethiopian food in Fresno? Now attach a probability of success to Ethiopian food versus Mexican based upon population, familiarity with cuisine, price, convenience, speed, and if your kids will eat it.

Then there was the obligatory “eat local” argument made in Bethany’s article and statistics that prove eating local is better for the local economy. If the locals want a Yard House, give them a Yard House.

Why?

Because the Body in Bog, Spokeasy, and Mad Duck obviously do not fill the void for craft brew, atmosphere, quality food, quality service, regular business hours, eye-candy people watching that Fresnans want and need. And the combined economic impact of Body in the Bog, Spokeasy and Mad Duck is significantly less than one Yard House to Fresno’s economic situation. I made a similar argument to Mike Oz a couple years back about El Toro Tambien and the impact it had to Fresno. Yard House has more revenue and a greater economic multiplier effect based upon the people that it employs and touches in a year than the 3 local craft brew establishments combined.

Basic Math (unconfirmed estimates)

Yard House Revenue = $4million, 40% of which is $1.6 million 

Body in Bog, Spokeasy, Mad Duck = Combined Revenue $1.5 million (WAG) 65% of which is $975,000

Multiplier effect from employee personnel at Yard House with 200 employees

Versus

Multiplier effect from combined employee personnel at other 3 bars with 50 employees

Bethany, I have a suggestion. Write another article on successful, LONG-LIVED restaurant businesses in Fresno. Go interview Fansler, Mariscotti, Vartanian, Ferdinandi, Pardini, or Shirinian or the restaurant manager at Ruth’s, Cheesecake or Yard House and ask them how business is. I think they’ll paint a different picture. And if you need a Downtown story (because I know you do), go interview the owners at Cosmopolitan, their restaurant and catering business combined are more successful than any other restaurant business downtown. And I’ll give you the headline for free:

OPEN: Pictures of Restaurant Success in Fresno

Fresno Obituary: Roe

A few generalities about Fresno, restaurants, demographics, and nightclubs should frame why Roe was doomed to fail; then some specifics about Roe and their location. A reminder…they didn’t fail because the economy is bad.

Let’s start with the basic premise that Mike Oz reinforces in his Beehive column, Roe was a Nightclub, not a restaurant. As many have opined on Twitter, Facebook, and in their own blogs, Restaurants posing as Nightclubs in Fresno are a horrible idea. Why? Chances are, the food is an afterthought to the overall money maker. Sort of like saying men go to City Lights for the delicious hot dogs served at the bar. Not likely. For those not familiar, City Lights is a gentlemen’s club near the Fresno Airport.

What defines the nightclub (non-gentlemen’s variety) scene just off of Herndon Avenue, north on Palm and connected loosely to Friant Road? The Standard, Club Habano’s, and Roe are the major players with full bar and some form of entertainment, club music, or a late-night vibe after midnight. While The Yard House is the current anchor of late-night people watching entertainment (and power drinking) and they are open till 2am, they don’t fall under the same category as Roe or the others, because their primary business is food even if they’re open late.

The Standard, Habano’s and Roe are regionalized in the same basic area of town within a regular circuit of drinking and eating. One could easily make a night out of starting out at Standard for a cocktail, eating at Eureka, and having drinks after dinner and listening to music at Habano’s or Roe.

But this specific combination of visiting The Standard, Eureka, and Roe by the same demographic is highly unlikely.

Why? Let’s get into the specifics of Roe.

First, Roe was often billed as an “Ultra-Lounge”, with bottle service and reserved tables for big spenders and VIPs. No other place in Fresno offers an Ultra-Lounge experience; although Habano’s and Standard do offer their versions of it. Now defunct Aquashi tried the ultra-lounge thing.

Bottle/Table service is the chance to reserve a table, similar to what visitors do in Las Vegas and be catered to like some actor, music star, or professional socialite for a couple hours a night. But instead of having $40 million in the bank like the aforementioned, the normal Fresno patron in both Vegas ultra-lounges and Roe would have dramatically less in the bank. Dramatically less. Ah, the price of bedazzled luxury these days.

Roe has two specific problems with the Ultra Lounge Concept:

1. Finding consistently well-bankrolled clientele in a 21-32 year old demographic; highly unlikely in Fresno and certainly not likely 5 nights a week.

2. Finding newly minted 21 year olds and regular 30 year old adolescents who would rather blow huge coin in Vegas a couple times of year and have a story to tell than regularly blow money at Roe in Fresno with the same crowd every week.

Remember...What goes to Vegas, stays in Vegas.

BUT...

If you live in Fresno and do it in Fresno, it stays in Fresno and it’s on Facebook. You can’t hide from your ex or your ex’s friends in Fresno. Way less cool than if I got tossed from a Vegas 2nd Tier strip club and only my best buddy knew about. That's a cool story to tell to the guys back home. Or the girl I picked up at the Ultra-Lounge came back with me to my internet special room rate at Vdara for $69 which looks way better than my apartment near Fresno State, which everyone at Roe knows I live in. 

You can't live the Ultra-Lounge lifestyle in Fresno...because everyone knows you.

A second factor was the type of entertainment Roe offered. I don’t think I’m going out on a limb to state that the shopping center Roe is located in doesn’t have a Hip-Hop, Techno, DJ (Place Cool Trade Name Here) vibe going for it. It doesn’t. Daily Grill is not the draw for 20-something youth looking for a cool place to start or end the night. Daily Grill is known for 2 for 1 pot pies from coupons in the newspaper, efficient service, and a no nonsense meal. Wahoo Fish Taco’s, Eureka, and The Tasting Room have virtually ZERO in common with a consistent 20-something hip-hop/DJ/Techno demographic that Roe was catering to.

Eureka Burger has acoustic nights, not techno-dance party night.

Let us expand on my theme of demographics with a couple examples…A couple guys just got finished with dinner at Daily Grill on a Wednesday night, heart healthy salmon along with steamed veggies and a glass of wine. Walk over to Eureka…9pm, acoustic night, light guitar sounds at Eureka with target demographic sipping 15 year Kentucky Bourbon by the glass (one drink only, have to drive) to catch up with an old friend and talk about their monthly “hall-pass”, early gout symptoms, and how many milligrams of Lipitor they’re taking.

VERSUS

Roe demographic of 6 guys that have never heard of Lipitor or gout, unload $250 on a table and a bottle of Grey Goose listening to 125 decibel House music (the equivalent noise of a pneumatic riveter). Who probably live by the philosophy of Clint in Dazed and Confused…”I came here to do two things, kick some ass and drink some beer…looks like we’re almost out of beer.” Enter Fresno PD…Sorry readers, I tried to weave projectile vomit into the Roe scene several times, but I just couldn’t make it work.

Not likely Daily Grill/Eureka demo and Roe demo is the same person. Ever.

The third specific factor regarding Roe’s demise is the real estate they occupy. It’s a huge space and it’s expensive. Ask the previous owners of Twist (or the current owners of The Venue). Thousands of square feet to rent and somewhere in the neighborhood of $3 a square foot. We’re talking $12-15,000 a month in rent here for a nightclub that’s probably only busy a couple nights a week. The pure economics don’t look good. How many turns a night, how many staff, food costs, and overhead are involved just to keep the doors open?

The last time there was a nightclub/dance club near Herndon was Bisla’s back in the day. It has been other things since the 90’s, but none were consistently successful. It marks a consistent trend for the evaporation of dance clubs in Fresno; they’re not worth starting.

Good-bye Roe. I hope the landowner splits up your former space into smaller spaces, because the likelihood of success in your old space is limited, except for a large, nationalized franchisee that caters to the demographic that is already established in the shopping center. The demographic that listens to acoustic guitar, eats heart healthy salmon, leases a BMW from down the block and enjoys paying for Rombauer Chardonnay for his girlfriend.

Fresno Obituary: Iron Bird Cafe

As I mentioned in my year end wrap up, we started 2012 talking about Iron Bird Café (IBC). I figured because no one was talking about it, the assumption was, IBC was doing fine. Well, I was wrong. The silence on IBC was wonderful actually. No whining business owners, just a simple business decision being made; closing IBC.

Unlike in 2011/2012, there were no last minute plea from bloggers to “Save the Clocktower” or some Mural District devotees to “band together to defeat the Legion of Doom”, whomever that Legion is. Nope, nothing, which was quite refreshing after the last time IBC went down.

I did see some nonsense on Facebook about everything from a lack of green space in the area for dogs and calls for urban renewal, neither of which have anything to do with the success or failure of IBC. I was hoping the Cat Enthusiasts would come out and declare that if only IBC were “cat friendly”, IBC would still be in business. I always find it amusing dog lovers find reasons cafes should be dog friendly, while cat lovers voice no opinion.

People seem to always have excuses for IBC but reasons for failure? Never.

There is a legitimate alcoholic beverage argument out there, but I have difficulty reconciling alcohol, coffee, and a café concept working together in the space as a reason for the failure. I think the alcohol argument is one more excuse in the case of IBC. Do I think alcohol within the framework of a different concept in the space is a reasonable argument? Yes.

Iron Bird Cafe is a good case for reflection and to discuss the real reasons for failure, not lack of green space and dog friendly areas. After two failed attempts to make a coffee café successful in the Iron Bird commercial/retail space, is someone fool enough to believe the third time is the charm? Some fool believer/dreamer might. I would argue that anyone who tries another coffee concept at Iron Bird in the same configuration EVEN WITH alcohol is a fool. So here are some things to consider, future Iron Bird vacant space leasee.

The physical property IBC leased is a legitimate topic to discuss; it’s big and it isn’t cheap. One must begin to wonder, is a coffee-based café the appropriate business to operate considering the size of the space and the amount per square foot? The coffee based concept has failed twice under two owners, with the latest owner having successfully demonstrated owning and operating coffee and tea based establishments in different parts of Fresno. The operators of Teazers obviously have a history of being solid business owners in the tea and coffee world. They understand profit margins, volume, foot traffic, etc. IBC is by no means an anchor property. It’s not the Starbuck’s in downtown Seattle for heaven’s sake. IBC has simply been an establishment that serves coffee on the corner of Fulton and Divisadero. Nothing more. It’s not iconic. It’s not a symbol. It’s not an anchor tenant.

The matter of location may also lead us to why a coffee café has failed twice at Fulton and Divisadero.

If I’m an attorney that lives off of Milburn and Herndon and works Downtown, where do I buy coffee on my way to work? Answer…Starbucks at Milburn and Herndon. If I’m a Judge that lives near Champlain and Perrin and works Downtown, where do I buy my coffee on the way to work? The Grind on Champlain and Perrin. If I’m a PG&E employee that lives off of Bullard and West and works Downtown, where do I buy my coffee on the way to work? Dutch Brothers on Bullard and West.

I can repeat this exercise all day long, but it’s indicative of the issue. Fresnans LOVE convenience. In none of the examples above do any of those people take Palm to Fulton to Divisadero to work in the morning. They probably all take a Freeway that connects them to Downtown rather than surface streets. And in each case, there is a convenient coffee house, probably with drive-thru, that enables each person to get their fix within a half-mile of their home to buy coffee on their way to work.

When the lawyer, judge, and utility employees in my local examples finally get to work Downtown, where do they get their 2pm coffee break? Either in the office they work or within walking distance of their office. Fulton and Divisadero is not walking distance for Fresnans who work Downtown. If a Downtown employee drives to a lunch location, it’s highly likely they will order coffee at the restaurant or drive through the nearest Starbucks on their way back to work. Make isolated arguments all you want, if you work at the Library Downtown, you don’t walk to IBC for lunch and coffee. You probably walk to Teazers.

There is one exception to the post-lunch coffee argument, Café Corazon.

But Cured Ham, why does Café Corazon stay in business? Shouldn’t they be in the same predicament that IBC is in? Until recently, they didn’t serve any breakfast or lunch items and they’re not located near the Freeway.

All true.

However, in Café Corazon’s case I see several differences and exceptions.

1. Leo has carved a specialty niche; he imports and roasts his own beans. No one in Fresno does this.
2. Café Corazon is located in a higher density area retail area; meaning breakfast, lunch and dinner crowds are higher in The Tower than near Fulton and Divis.
3. More people live in The Tower than Fulton and Divis.
4. Leo has a more simple concept, serve really good coffee. Leo doesn’t care to be all things to all people.
5. Leo works in his own store, knows his customers, and interacts; he’s not just an employee who doesn’t want to be there that day making minimum wage and has no idea how to froth milk.
6. The post-lunch coffee is realistic for Café Corazon because of its location in The Tower near a regular lunch crowd. While none of these exceptions would have given IBC an edge, they collectively give an advantage to Café Corazon.
7. Café Corazon has a small retail footprint and a rent to match its volume.

I actually go out of my way to drink Leo’s coffee. Not every day to be sure, I generally brew at home a type of coffee Leo doesn’t make in a Mocha pot. If I’m ever in The Tower, I drink Leo’s coffee. Why? Because he’s a specialist and I appreciate his attention to detail. In fact, I know that I would purposely go out of my way to NOT drink IBC if I was even close, but rather head to Café Corazon. Sorry IBC lovers, Corazon makes a better coffee. When I lived and regularly visit San Francisco, I drink my coffee at Illy or Peet’s only. I don’t drink Starbucks. In Sonoma County, I drink Flying Goat Coffee espresso because it’s pulled properly. If there’s no line at Blue Bottle, I will drink coffee there. Ritual Coffee is another place I go, one of them resides in the Oxbow Public Market in Napa.

Oh yes, I can be a coffee snob too. But you probably figured that already.

In the final analysis, Iron Bird Café was a flawed concept from the beginning. The location, the space, the traffic flow, dining options, parking are all factors in IBC’s demise. Fulton 55 across the street proves something can work at Fulton and Divis, just not coffee.

So what’s next? I’d look at the space and lease provisions first. This is where the alcohol provision comes into play. Traffic flow will play an important role. The “build it and they will come” argument is for dreamers and fools, a restaurant will prove to be a horrible idea, even though the community around it will push for such a concept to some idiot that has an undercapitalized dream. Something with higher margins, smaller square feet, and less reliance on traffic flow would be my bet for success.

The Cured Ham and Mayan Time

Here's a shot of Machu Pichu. And if you're reading this, I think we made it past Y2K...I mean Mayan End of the World Day, which I was interested in last year. Here's to a Happy New Year 2013!